Koben Research is a newsletter focused on quantitative analysis, providing a rigorous, innovative, and current perspective. Our goal is to go beyond traditional methods by combining fundamental analysis with comprehensive risk assessment.
Randomness and uncertainty are inherent features of financial markets. Since predicting the future is impossible, a probability framework is the most effective way to determine whether to invest in a company.
Each weekly issue highlights a publicly traded company, concentrating on less-covered European firms. We start with an in-depth review of its fundamentals, including recent financial statements, percentile rankings, competitive advantages, and potential factors that may influence its future growth.
However, our distinct value comes from integrating our quantitative risk model with the following features:
Dynamic Volatility: Recognises that volatility fluctuates and tends to cluster over time, while rare but significant extreme events can also occur.
Historical Flexible Probabilities: We weight historical data to give greater importance to periods with market conditions similar to today, making our analysis more relevant to current decision-making.
Monte Carlo Simulations: We project thousands of scenarios to estimate price distributions and risk metrics—such as VaR, CVaR, and Maximum Drawdown—across time horizons of 3 to 12 months.
Through this approach, you will gain not only a robust understanding of a company's intrinsic value but also insight into the likelihood and magnitude of the risks involved in investing. It is important to emphasise that our model delivers probabilities, not predictions, as the future cannot be forecast with precision. While we cannot say with certainty where a stock's price will be in six or twelve months, we strive to quantify uncertainty—empowering investors to make more informed, risk-aware decisions.
Koben Research is not a trading signals service and does not provide stock price predictions. Our model estimates probabilities rather than certainties, and, like any model, has its limitations.
Who's Behind Koben Research
Koben Research was founded by David López, who holds a BSc in Banking and Finance with a focus on quantitative methods. David is currently completing the Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management (ARPM) certification programme by Attilio Meucci, widely regarded as one of the most rigorous quantitative frameworks in the industry. This combination of academic foundation and applied quantitative training is what drives the analytical methodology behind every Koben Research analysis.