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Koben Research is an independent equity research on Nordic small and mid-caps, combining fundamental analysis with probabilistic valuation models. Markets are characterised by randomness and uncertainty. Predicting the future is impossible, but quantifying uncertainty is not. A probabilistic framework is, in my view, the most rigorous way to assess whether to invest in a company, not by producing a single price target, but by mapping the distribution of possible outcomes.
Each analysis covers a single publicly traded Nordic small- or mid-cap company. The work begins with an in-depth review of its fundamentals — recent financial statements, percentile rankings, competitive moat, capital allocation, and structural factors that may influence its future trajectory.
The analytical edge comes from integrating a quantitative risk framework built on three pillars:
Dynamic Volatility (GARCH) recognises that volatility fluctuates and clusters over time, and that rare but significant extreme events occur more often than normal-distribution models assume.
Historical Flexible Probabilities: following the framework developed by Attilio Meucci, historical data is weighted to give greater importance to periods with market conditions similar to today, making the analysis more relevant to current decision-making.
Monte Carlo Simulations: thousands of forward-looking scenarios are projected to estimate price distributions and risk metrics such as VaR, CVaR, and Maximum Drawdown across horizons of 3 to 12 months. The output is not a price prediction. It is a distribution of outcomes, a probabilistic map of where the stock could trade under different scenarios, and the likelihoods associated with each outcome.
Koben Research is not a trading signals service. It does not provide stock price predictions, buy/sell recommendations, or investment advice. All models have limitations, and probabilities are not certainties.
The work is independent in the strict sense: no commissioned coverage, no payments from covered companies, no paywall, and no premium tier. All content is published free of charge.
Active Coverage focuses on Nordic small and mid-caps — companies listed in Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway. Earlier coverage included select European companies (Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands) that fit the analytical framework; these analyses remain available in the archive but are no longer actively followed.
Koben Research is written by David López, an independent analyst based in Bilbao, Spain. I hold a BSc in Banking and Finance with a focus on quantitative methods, and I am currently completing the Advanced Risk and Portfolio Management (ARPM) certification programme developed by Attilio Meucci — widely regarded as one of the most rigorous quantitative frameworks in the industry. The combination of academic foundation and applied quantitative training is what drives the methodology behind every Koben Research analysis.
For research feedback, coverage requests, or professional inquiries: [email protected]