When we published our analysis on 30 March, Moreld's stock was at NOK 17.50. It now trades at NOK 19.88, a +13.6% increase, pushing the price above our base-case median of NOK 18.22 and close to the P75 boundary at NOK 20.83, where our upside potential starts.
The Q1 2026 results, released on 7 May, showed revenue of NOK 1,381 million, down from NOK 2,903 million in Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding IFRS 16, was negative NOK 93 million, compared with positive NOK 428 million the previous year.
Ocean Installer faced challenges, recording revenue of NOK 270 million and an EBITDA of negative NOK 137 million, due to the scheduled dry-docking of the North Sea Giant and a weak market. Moreld Apply, the segment where margin compression was a key concern, achieved a margin of 5.4%, up from 3.8% in Q4 2025. The company reaffirmed its full-year EBITDA guidance of NOK 0.7–0.9 billion.
More importantly, the order book shifted. Order intake of NOK 1,731 million, compared with revenue of NOK 1,381 million, results in a roughly 1.25x book-to-bill ratio for the quarter, up from the 0.45x trailing ratio that underpinned the initial valuation discount.
Backlog increased from NOK 5,929 million to NOK 6,281 million quarter-over-quarter. The EMOD/EPRO framework agreement with Equinor, secured in January, has not yet been reflected in the backlog and will be recognised as projects are awarded. Ocean Installer signed a non-exclusive Master Framework Agreement with ENI, was awarded a SURF tie-back project in the Mediterranean, and opened a local office in Rio de Janeiro. Global Maritime secured the TetraSpar floating wind decommissioning contract.
At the annual general meeting on 19 May, the dividend was raised to NOK 0.50 per share (annualised NOK 2.00), and a 10% buyback authorisation was approved. The shareholder yield of 28.87% combines the increased dividend with the new buyback authorisation, and a FCF/Dividend Coverage ratio of 3.0x ensures the higher payout remains well supported.
Regarding leverage, the Net debt / (EBITDA – Capex) ratio increased from 0.8x to 1.6x. However, management anticipates the ratio will fall below 1.0x later this year as earnings recover in the second half.
Greenblatt ROC on operational capital efficiency is 28.75%, excluding goodwill and comparing EBIT to tangible operating capital; this figure has remained stable, confirming the business’s strong capital efficiency.
The price is within the P50 and P75 of our distribution, located in the upper half of the base-case range but not yet in the upside zone. Factors such as the book-to-bill ratio rising above 1.0x, recovering margins, the dividend increase, and international expansion all enhance the likelihood of the upside scenario.
The full analysis is available https://newsletter.kobenresearch.com/p/moreld
DISCLAIMER
Author: David López, Koben Research. First published: May 21, 2026
This publication is intended for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice, nor an offer, solicitation or personalised recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker or dealer, and Koben Research is not authorised or regulated by the CNMV or any other financial supervisory authority. As of the date of publication, the author holds no position in the issuer covered, has no intention to take any position within the following 30 days, and has received no compensation from the issuer. Quantitative projections derive from a GARCH + Historical Flexible Probabilities + Monte Carlo framework with t-Student; they are model outputs, not price targets.
All investment involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decision.