When we published our analysis on 20 April, Pandora's stock traded at DKK 527.20. Our model showed a median of DKK 575.16, with an interquartile range of DKK 425 to DKK 778. The stock drifted lower towards the 6 May Q1 2026 release, then rallied 8.64% on the results to close today at DKK 540.60, within the central range of the simulation but still below the median. The reaction mirrors what results ultimately showed: a quarter that included both warning signals we identified and operational evidence supporting the core thesis.
Pandora experienced a 2% organic growth in Q1, with flat like-for-like sales and network expansion driving the overall gain. In EMEA, like-for-like declined by 2%, with positive contributions from Spain, Portugal, and Poland being offset by declines in Italy, France, Germany, and the UK. North America LfL decelerated from +2% in Q4 to -2% in Q1, formally activating the downside trigger defined in our initial analysis. Latin America posted a 6% increase, while Asia-Pacific grew by 12%, confirming the success of regional execution strategies.
Profitability presented a more positive narrative. The gross margin of 79.5% absorbed 370 basis points of external headwinds. The EBIT margin reached 20.9%, despite facing 440 basis points of total external pressure, and the trailing ROIC stayed at 39%, well above the high-twenties range that our analysis identified as a key indicator of sustainable growth. The 2026 guidance of -1% to +2% organic growth and an EBIT margin of 21-22% was reaffirmed.
The roadmap for platinum-plating has become clear. Pandora plans to shift 50% of its relevant silver collection to platinum by the end of 2027 and 80% by the end of 2028. The company guides a 2027 EBIT margin of at least 12%, or at least 14% excluding one-off transition costs, recovering to above 21% in the mid-term. The transitional compression in 2027 reflects the cost of executing the shift.
What was initially considered an open-ended execution risk is now more clearly defined: the EVERSHINE plan, guided by the 2027 EBIT margin target of at least 12% and a mid-term goal above 21%, turns the platinum transition from an uncertain event into a manageable process with clear milestones.
The capital strategy remains disciplined: the DKK 22 dividend was paid, 4 million treasury shares were cancelled on 10 April, and buyback plans remain linked to further progress in the platinum transition. Berta de Pablos-Barbier completed her first full quarter as CEO, and Philippa Newman joined as Chief Product Officer on 9 March. A broader strategic update is scheduled for 4 November, along with the Q3 results.
Overall, Q1 appears to be a baseline quarter. Operational metrics remain within the ranges outlined in our initial analysis. However, the slowdown in North America has triggered one of the warning signals we previously identified. Neither the potential upside factors nor the downside risks are decisive at this point. We maintain our base-case view: the downside tail remains significant until silver visibility improves in 2027, but the operational and capital evidence from this quarter is consistent with our central scenario.
The full analysis is available https://newsletter.kobenresearch.com/p/pandora
DISCLAIMER
Author: David López, Koben Research. First published: April 29, 2026
This publication is intended for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice, nor an offer, solicitation or personalised recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker or dealer, and Koben Research is not authorised or regulated by the CNMV or any other financial supervisory authority. As of the date of publication, the author holds no position in the issuer covered, has no intention to take any position within the following 30 days, and has received no compensation from the issuer. Quantitative projections derive from a GARCH + Historical Flexible Probabilities + Monte Carlo framework with t-Student; they are model outputs, not price targets.
All investment involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decision.