When we first published our analysis on 18 March, Raute was trading at EUR 14.35. It closed yesterday at EUR 14.70 (+2.4%). This is slightly below our Monte Carlo base case of EUR 15.72 (P50) and significantly above the P25 floor of EUR 10.88.
Although the share price has stayed relatively steady, it hides several warning signs we had noted earlier. However, the stability hints that the market likely expected much of the cyclical downturn when we published our report.
The Q1 2026 results, published on 7 May, confirmed the expected operational slowdown in our downside scenario. Net sales declined 35.5% to EUR 33.5 million, with decreases across all three segments. The order intake reached EUR 17 million, slightly below the EUR 20 million warning threshold we had set for the quarter. The order book ended at EUR 81 million, nearly matching the EUR 80 million backlog floor outlined in our framework.
Comparable EBITDA stood at EUR 4.2 million (12.6% margin), down 43% year-on-year. However, it was supported by the reversal of some project-related cost provisions in Wood Processing, leading to a segment margin increase to 15.7%. Meanwhile, Services and Analyzers did not meet internal expectations, with Analyzers posting negative EBITDA.
The 30 April profit warning is the most material development. Management reduced the 2026 net sales range from EUR 135–170 million to EUR 125–160 million, while keeping the comparable EBITDA range at EUR 10–19 million. The asymmetry is the key takeaway: revenue continues to disappoint, but cost discipline and operational execution have so far been sufficient to protect profitability.
On 7 May, Raute initiated change negotiations with around 140 employees in Finland about possible temporary layoffs of up to 90 days. This step aims to adjust capacity in line with the lower-volume guidance, rather than signifying a permanent reduction.
Capital allocation continues to favour shareholders despite the downturn. The Annual General Meeting on 14 April approved a dividend of EUR 0.65 per share, paid on 23 April, and renewed the authorisation for a 600,000-share buyback; the buyback program initiated in February remains ongoing. Additionally, a new undrawn EUR 15 million credit line strengthens the company's EUR 33.8 million cash reserves.
Our initial thesis described Raute as generating record profits while trading at a distressed valuation, with the key question being whether the company could withstand a cyclical downturn without damaging its franchise.
So far, evidence suggests a partial downside: revenue is affected — order intake is low, backlog is at a warning level, and guidance has been reduced — but the EBITDA floor we considered baseline is maintained, thanks to cost measures and solid project execution.
The thesis remains valid but is being closely watched: the next critical points are whether quarterly order intake surpasses EUR 20 million and whether the company finally secures a large order after nearly two years of scarce activity.
The full analysis is available at https://newsletter.kobenresearch.com/p/raute
DISCLAIMER
Author: David López, Koben Research. First published: May 13, 2026
This publication is intended for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice, nor an offer, solicitation or personalised recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker or dealer, and Koben Research is not authorised or regulated by the CNMV or any other financial supervisory authority. As of the date of publication, the author holds no position in the issuer covered, has no intention to take any position within the following 30 days, and has received no compensation from the issuer. Quantitative projections derive from a GARCH + Historical Flexible Probabilities + Monte Carlo framework with t-Student; they are model outputs, not price targets.
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