When we published our analysis on February 25, Rockwool was trading at DKK 227.10. The stock now trades at DKK 190.60, a 16.1% drop over the past 12 weeks. This places the price below our P25 target of DKK 194.64 and within the downside range of DKK 139–195.
The key event was the Q1 2026 report released on 19 May, following an upward revision to guidance on 11 May. Management increased the full-year revenue growth forecast to 3–6% in local currencies (up from 2–4%) and raised the investment budget to approximately EUR 700 million (up from EUR 650 million), while keeping the EBIT margin range steady at 13–14%.
Q1 revenue totalled EUR 906 million, increasing by 2.3% in local currencies and remaining stable in reported figures. The EBIT margin stood at 13.2%, at the lower end of guidance and 2.2 percentage points below the record achieved in Q1 2025.
Eastern Europe increased by 15%, driven mainly by Romania and Hungary; North America grew by 3.2% in local currencies, despite ongoing weakness in Canada; Western Europe decreased by 0.9%, with France, Italy, Spain, and Sweden offsetting the downturn in the UK and Germany. The Swiss production incident and the halt in electrical conversion in the Netherlands negatively impacted margins, along with rising logistics expenses.
The metrics provide a clear narrative about the investment cycle. Trailing ROIC has declined to 14.10%, whereas Greenblatt ROC remains at 21.34%. The difference between these metrics reflects the dynamic we observed on February 25: the operating engine stays highly capital-efficient, but the growing invested-capital base from the multi-continent expansion reduces returns. Along with a Greenblatt earnings yield of 10.73%, this reading aligns with what one would expect during a cyclical low for a quality industrial company.
The ROE Damodaran of 1.02% is distorted by the EUR 170 million Russian-currency translation reserve recycled through the P&L, making it not very informative on its own. The leverage ratio of 0.4x (Net Debt / (EBITDA - CapEx)) shows that the balance sheet can handle the EUR 700 million programme without difficulty. The FCF yield on market cap is a modest 2.77%, aligning with peak CapEx; total shareholder yield is 4.08%, with FCF covering the dividend only 1.2 times, a tight margin that likely explains why no successor buyback has been initiated following the programme's conclusion on 6 February.
On 5 May, the group announced the acquisition of Ravago's stone wool factory in northeastern Hungary, with a capacity of 40 kilotonnes, expected to close in Q4 2026. Alongside the newly approved Norwegian warehouse in April, these developments support the regional capacity expansion thesis outlined in our initial analysis.
On 15 April, the Annual General Meeting approved a DKK 4.15 dividend and authorized the cancellation of 4,346,560 class B shares, which lowered the nominal share capital from DKK 211.6 million to DKK 207.3 million.
The operational thesis remains unchanged. Guidance has been raised for revenue and investment, while margins stay at the lower end of the range. The metrics reflect the same outlook. However, the price still moves within the downside range of our distribution.
The full analysis is available https://newsletter.kobenresearch.com/p/rockwool
DISCLAIMER
Author: David López, Koben Research. First published: May 20, 2026
This publication is intended for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice, nor an offer, solicitation or personalised recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker or dealer, and Koben Research is not authorised or regulated by the CNMV or any other financial supervisory authority. As of the date of publication, the author holds no position in the issuer covered, has no intention to take any position within the following 30 days, and has received no compensation from the issuer. Quantitative projections derive from a GARCH + Historical Flexible Probabilities + Monte Carlo framework with t-Student; they are model outputs, not price targets.
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