When we released our analysis on 9 March, Vistin Pharma's stock was at NOK 21.60. It now trades at NOK 22.40, representing a +3.7% increase. This price is slightly above the median (P50: NOK 22.09) of our Monte Carlo simulation but remains notably below the P75 level at NOK 25.80.
Q1 2026 supports this perspective. Reported revenue totalled NOK 112 million, down 2.6% from NOK 115 million in Q1 2025, with EBITDA at NOK 27 million compared to NOK 30 million. When adjusted for currency fluctuations, both figures were slightly better year-on-year, as the krone appreciated against the euro in March.
Sales volume reached 1,520 metric tonnes, a 9% year-over-year increase, indicating that the operational ramp toward 7,000 MT is ongoing. The EBITDA margin of 24% and the gross margin of 63% remain consistent with our base-case assumptions. Management has announced a four-week maintenance shutdown in Q4 to replace the main distillation vessel, which will temporarily reduce Q4 throughput.
About half of the 2026 sales are hedged at significantly better EUR/NOK rates compared to spot. Additionally, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, supported by approximately three months of raw material safety stock, is expected to preserve or even boost global metformin prices.
A Greenblatt earnings yield of 8.5%, combined with a 24.5% return on capital, places Vistin as a "good business at a fair price." However, the cash conversion metrics require an honest assessment: a FCF/market cap yield of 4.9% is lower than the 5.4% shareholder yield from the AGM-approved NOK 1.50-per-share dividend.
Additionally, an FCF/dividend coverage ratio of 0.8x indicates that the dividend slightly exceeds free cash flow. While the balance sheet can support this shortfall, if Q4 total capex exceeds the initial guidance of NOK 25–27 million, this situation cannot continue indefinitely. At present, the dividend is sustainable, but its long-term viability depends on FCF recovery from Q2.
During the AGM on 20 May, the dividend received approval, the board was re-elected unanimously, and the executive loan facility for share purchases under the LTIP was increased from NOK 5 million to NOK 6 million, a development we see as a positive signal of structural alignment.
Our thesis remains based on the base case. None of the downside warning signals (quarterly revenue declines exceeding -5% YoY, EBITDA margins below 22%, or stagnating production volume) has been triggered. The potential upside catalysts (a 95% commercial launch of DC, full utilisation of 7,000 MT, and a strategic outcome with CF Pharma) are still possible but have not yet materialised. We continue to monitor these developments.
The full analysis is available https://newsletter.kobenresearch.com/p/vistin-pharma
DISCLAIMER
Author: David López, Koben Research. First published: May 22, 2026
This publication is intended for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, financial or trading advice, nor an offer, solicitation or personalised recommendation to buy, sell or hold any financial instrument.
The author is not a licensed financial advisor, broker or dealer, and Koben Research is not authorised or regulated by the CNMV or any other financial supervisory authority. As of the date of publication, the author holds no position in the issuer covered, has no intention to take any position within the following 30 days, and has received no compensation from the issuer. Quantitative projections derive from a GARCH + Historical Flexible Probabilities + Monte Carlo framework with t-Student; they are model outputs, not price targets.
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